What do you mean more Fiat*? Everything most of us own is in cryptocurrencies.
I personally, have to sell 10 PASCs every time I go grocery shopping. Every time the market goes down, and it usually goes down big once in a while I just delete my Blockfolio shortcut and I stop checking prices. I detach completely from the cryptocurrency world and it works. I just HODL*. That’s the religion after all. But deep inside, I know I still feel poor. At least poorer.
But see, I am a changed man now. I have a plan and having a plan means you are better than 95% of the people in this business. I have the audacity to suggest that switching into fiat at a certain moment may make some of us more money.
Let me reverse engineer the genius epiphany I came to thanks to the last dip. Let us go back to the very beginning of January. Don’t you remember that moment when you were feeling filthy rich? Like you didn’t deserve these enormous gains? You were making too much too fast. Not that it is bad but doesn’t it feel too good to be true? See, that’s the moment where you sell 30% of your crypto. Don’t tell me that you didn’t have that feeling that something is wrong and you can’t be making that much money just by refreshing the Blockfolio. Try to go back there and click save on that feeling, remember it well. That feeling is what is going to make you money.
And I am not saying you should have felt it and done it on the 6th of January right before the bloody massacre. No, you didn’t have to. Aiming at the exact highs and lows is a doomed strategy. In the long term you are going to make more money selling close to the high and buying close to the low, than aiming at the absolute peaks and dips.
You could have sold on the 5th, 4th, 3rd of January. Maybe even after Christmas. I’m talking about the moment things went crazy parabolic.
Any time after the beginning of December would have made you money. And you can’t lose that much by selling 30%, come on, don’t be that greedy. I believe it is an asymmetric risk, history has shown us that a dip is inevitable.
And you would say “It is easy to say it after the dip!” and you would be right. I can’t predict it exactly, but, trust me or not, I know I knew what was happening, I just didn’t act on it. I think everybody knew. They just didn’t want it to happen so they ignored it, same as I did. The first step to solving the problem is identifying it, so here we are. From now on I will trust my instinct on this one. I just do a haircut to my portfolio, 30% of everything goes to Ethereum, this ETH goes to Kraken and then turns to euros. These euros will be just lying there like a bunch of wels catfish on the bottom of a lake until their time comes to swim.
And lastly, but very importantly, I’m not going against the HODL religion.
HODL is the best thing you can do when you don’t know what to do.
HODL is the best thing you can do when everything goes down. HODL is what keeps it from crashing harder. I’m just adding an exception to the HODL principle called “shit’s going crazy parabolic.” And by crazy I mean crypto standards crazy.